| Country | Odds |
| Cuba | +110 |
| Netherlands | +250 |
| Italy | +500 |
| Chinese Taipei | +700 |
| Panama | +1300 |
Of the four pools, Pool A is projected to be the most wide open, with Team Cuba (+110) sitting as the odds-on favorite. While Cuba hasn’t had much success in the WBC, it’s in a favorable part of the bracket that should result in it at least reaching the eight-team, single-elimination round.
White Sox stars Luis Robert and Yoan Moncada headline the roster, and ex-MLBer Yoenis Cespedes is also back on the big stage. A good chunk of the roster plays their professional ball in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball Organization, with three of their better pitchers, Yariel Rodriguez, Radiel Martinez, and Livan Moinelo, hailing from the NPB. It makes sense to see Cuba listed as the team to beat, but Team Netherlands (+250)could give them a run for their money.
The Dutch have a roster full of current and former MLB talent, most notably in the infield with Xander Bogaerts, Jonathan Schoop, Richie Palacios, Didi Gregorious, and Andrelton Simmons. Bogaerts makes his third WBC appearance at age 30, and alongside Schoop, he will likely make up one of the better SS-2B tandems in the classic.
On the pitching side, Boston’s Kenley Jansen is the biggest name among Team Netherlands’ hurlers, as the three-time All-Star closer is still capable of getting outs in high-leverage situations. Back in the 2009 WBC, Jansen displayed his elite arm behind the dish, but his days as a catcher are long gone. Elsewhere, the more recognizable names on the rubber include former Cub and ’16 World Series Champion Pedro Strop and ex-Atlanta Brave Jair Jurrjens, who hasn’t pitched stateside since ’14.
Team Italy (+500) managed by Hall-of-Fame catcher Mike Piazza, comes in at 5-1 to win Pool A. Royals infielders Vinnie Pasquantino and Nicky Lopez are the biggest names on the roster outside ex-Met Matt Harvey. Team Italy didn’t make it past the first round in 2017 and comes in with the third-best odds to win Pool A, so the betting market’s pricing them as the first team to miss the cut.
Team Chinese Taipei (+700) could be a sleeper, as a team comprised of mostly Chinese Professional Baseball League (CPBL) players shouldn’t be overlooked. The only time Taipei advanced out of the first round was the last time they hosted in 2013, and with first-round games being played at Taichung InterContinental Stadium, having a home-field advantage could help Taipei make it back to the second round.
Team Panama (+1300) is the longest shot to win Pool A but has some recognizable names of players who’ve competed stateside. Pitchers Jaime Barria, Paolo Espino, Javy Guerra, and Justin Lawrence are the most well-known, and with a deep cast of arms, Team Panama could make a run if they’re able to play lower-scoring games relying on their run-prevention unit and defense.
Betting advice: We’d take the 2.5-1 payday and back Team Netherlands (+250) to win Pool A. The Dutch’s roster can go toe-to-toe with Cuba and makes a case to be priced as the team to beat in Pool A.
World Baseball Classic 2023 Pool B Odds
| Country | Odds |
| Japan | -650 |
| South Korea | +400 |
| Australia | +4000 |
| China | +6500 |
| Czech Republic | +10000 |
The most lopsided odds come via Pool B, with hosts Team Japan (-650) pegged as hefty favorites. The two-time World Champions get to play their first-round games at the Tokyo Dome, and with a roster that’s got depth all over the field, it’s likely Samurai Japan takes care of business on their home soil.
Manager Hideki Kuriyama’s 30-man squad includes MLB stars Shohei Ohtani and Yu Darvish along with 2022 breakouts Lars Nootbaar and Seiya Suzuki. Samurai Japan has a loaded pitching staff that consists of NPB stars Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Roki Sasaki. Yamamoto’s won two consecutive MVPs, his latest coming after throwing 193 innings with a 1.68 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP. Sasaki also threw the first perfect game in NPB in 28 years with 19 strikeouts.
Outside of the ’21 AL MVP and ’22 runner-up Ohtani, newly signed Red Sox outfielder, Masataka Yoshida, provides a disciplined, top-of-the-order bat with some pop. Nootbar’s making history as the first player born outside the country to play for Team Japan, but his mother hails from Japan. Between their pitching depth and well-rounded lineup, Samurai Japan has a real chance to win their third WBC title in five tries.
Team Korea (+400) stands to be their biggest competition, but does it have a strong enough pitching staff to win Pool B? MLB infielders Ha-Seong Kim and Tommy Edman will provide solid defense up the middle and likely hit toward the top of the lineup. Current Kiwoom Heroes outfielder Jung-Hoo Lee is set to be posted after the upcoming KBO season and should stabilize the middle of the order. KBO stars Jeong Choi, Baek-Ho Kang, and Eui-ji Yang can have a productive tournament at the plate to help Team Korea push through to the second round.
Former Cardinals starter Kwang-Hyun Kim is the most notable pitcher on the staff, but lefthander Chang-Mo Koo has just as impressive of an arsenal. Team Korea has to rely on rolling lots of ground balls for their infield, and we’ll see if they have enough swing-and-miss stuff to post a good enough strikeout rate to make a run.
Team Australia (+4000) isn’t expected to make it past pool play, something it failed to do in the first four iterations of the WBC. In the 2017 WBC, Australia notched one win over China but lost to Japan and Cuba by a combined four runs. As the betting market’s indicated, the Aussies are well behind Japan and Korea but should fare well against China and the Czech Republic.
The 2023 WBC squad is led by former Tigers reliever Warwick Saupold, but Saupold struggled in his most recent action in the Australian winter league, compiling a 5.56 ERA. Fellow pitcher Tim Atherton reached AAA with the Athletics back in ’14 but now plays in Australia. The Aussie pitcher staff is littered with former and current MLB farmhands, giving them one of the more underrated run-prevention units.
Team China (+6500) is making its fifth-straight WBC appearance and only has one player in an MLB system, righthander Alan Carter of the Angels. Team China’s going to need to find a way to win low-scoring games, manufacturing runs via bunts and stolen bases. We’ll see if they’re able to steal a pool play game against the top three teams in Pool B, but it’s unlikely to advance out of the pool.
Team Czech Republic (+10000) has the longest odds to win Pool B, as it’s earned a spot in the WBC after making a run in the qualifiers. Former MLB infielder Eric Sogard is the most recognizable face for the Czech, as the majority of the roster is comprised of players who play baseball in their spare time while working other full-time jobs.
Betting advice: Pool B appears to be Japan’s to lose, but betting them at -650 simply isn’t worth it. While it will be a tough feat, South Korea could be an intriguing sleeper play at +400. Ultimately, it’s probably best to bet on Team Japan’s run line once play starts rather than lay the -650 price tag.
World Baseball Classic 2023 Pool C Odds
| Country | Odds |
| USA | -500 |
| Mexico | +400 |
| Canada | +2500 |
| Colombia | +2500 |
| Great Britain | +10000 |
Team USA (-500) is the second-heaviest favorite to win their respective pool, coming in with an 83-percent implied probability to claim Pool C. That’s a fair price considering the other competing countries can give the US a run for their money but aren’t nearly as deep.
Team USA is priced with the second-highest odds to win the WBC behind the Dominican Republic and another deep run in the WBC is the expectation for Mark DeRosa’s squad. Their pitching staff isn’t as top heavy as the Dominican Republic and Japan, but Lance Lynn, Miles Mikolas, Adam Wainwright, Brady Singer, and Merrill Kelly highlight a well-rounded starting rotation. The back of the bullpen should be lights out in pool play with Daniel Bard, David Bednar, Ryan Pressly, and Devin Williams holding down late-inning leads.
The lineup is loaded 1-9 with Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, and Kyle Tucker roaming the outfield and Trea Turner, Pete Alonso, Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, Tim Anderson, Jeff McNeil, and Bobby Witt Jr. make up arguably the most talented US infield of all-time. Catchers J.T. Realmuto and Will Smith round out the star-studded Team USA roster.
Team Mexico (+400) is priced as Team USA’s top contender and is another roster loaded with MLB talent. The pitching rotation is led by Julio Urias, Jose Urquidy, and Taijuan Walker while Alejandro Kirk, Rowdy Tellez, Alex Verdugo, and Randy Arozarena are the biggest bats.
Team Mexico’s likely to advance to the second round, but winning Pool C figures to be a tough task with the USA standing in their way. They did take down Team USA back in 2013, so anything’s possible.
Team Canada (+2500) is led by manager Ernie Whitt, who’s coaching in his fifth WBC. Whitt’s roster is led by 2020 NL MVP Freddie Freeman along with Tyler O’Neill, Cal Quantrill, and Nick Pivetta. MLBers Abraham Toro and Matt Brash are other key pieces of a roster looking to make it out of the first round for the first time in their WBC history.
Team Colombia’s (+2500) roster is a mix between MLB veterans and young domestic talent. Gio Urshela, Jorge Alfaro, Donovan Solano, and Oscar Mercado are the veteran position players while Jose Quintana, Nabil Crismatt, and Julio Teheran are their most notable hurlers.
Team Great Britain (+10000) has the Mariners’ top catching prospect, Harry Ford, and Dodgers outfielder Trayce Thompson on the squad, but the Brits are a long shot to contend in Pool C.
Betting advice: Similar to our strategy to betting on Pool B, you’re probably better off taking Team USA on the run line in each of their pool play games rather than laying the -500 price tag on them to win Pool C. Mexico could be the surprise team to win the pool if not for USA, so a modest wager on Mexico +400 could be another way to approach Pool C.
World Baseball Classic 2023 Pool D Odds
| Country | Odds |
| Dominican Republic | -300 |
| Venezuela | +400 |
| Puerto Rico | +450 |
| Israel | +6500 |
| Nicaragua | +10000 |
Team Dominican Republic (-300) is the odds-on favorite to win the tournament, hovering around +200, but is just a -300 favorite to win a deep and talented Pool D. The D.R, could be the most talented baseball team to ever be assembled and is looking to win its second WBC after defeating Puerto Rico in 2013.
On paper, the D.R. has zero weaknesses, with a starting infield that will likely consist of Manny Machado, Jeremy Pena, Wander Franco, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. The outfield is just as talented with Juan Soto, Julio Rodriguez, and Teoscar Hernandez, while their pitching staff led by 2022 NL Cy Young Sandy Alcantara, Cristian Javier, Gregory Soto, and Rafael Montero is going to lockdown offenses. Team Dominican Republic has too much talent to list all of its contributors, but just know that the betting market has correctly identified them as the team to beat.
Team Venezuela (+400) would have better than 4.5:1 odds to win its pool if not for the D.R., but it’s still capable of pulling off an upset en route to claiming Pool D. Venezuela’s infield of Jose Altuve, Luis Arraez, Miguel Cabrera, Andres Gimenez, Eugenio Suarez, has a boatload of talent, while their outfield of Ronald Acuna Jr., David Peralta, and Anthony Santander can hold its own. Venezuela also has a bevy of impressive arms consisting of Ranger Suarez, Pablo Lopez, German Marquez, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Jose Alvarado.
Team Puerto Rico (+450) finished as the runner-up in the past two WBCs, but making it past the pool play round this year will be as challenging as ever. Infield duo Francisco Lindor and Javier Baez will do their best to help Puerto Rico compete with the D.R. and Venezuela, and while the roster is loaded with current MLB talent, it has a brutal draw that’s pegged it as the third-best team in Pool D.
Team Israel (+6500) and Team Nicaragua (+10000) would need to pull off a miracle to win Pool D, as it’s unlikely either country makes it past the first round.
Betting advice: We’re starting to sound like a broken record, but rather than bet on the Dominican Republic to win Pool D at -300, it could be worthwhile to bet their individual pool play games instead. Venezuela (+400) has a shot to emerge victorious as the pool winners, but who really wants to bet against the D.R.?
Story by Nick Musial / Sporting News
